The China lung cancer screening market is gearing up for rapid expansion, with revenues expected to nearly double from US$ 616.2 million in 2025 to US$ 1,295.5 million by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2% during the forecast period, according to industry projections.
As lung cancer continues to be the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in China—claiming over 700,000 lives annually—the country is making aggressive strides toward early detection. With most diagnoses still occurring at late stages when treatment options are limited, lung cancer screening has emerged as a core element of public health policy. At the center of this effort is Low-Dose Computed Tomography (LDCT), a diagnostic tool proven to identify early-stage malignancies and improve survival outcomes.
Government Backing Paves Way for Mass Screening
The Chinese government has placed lung cancer detection high on the healthcare agenda. Through the National Cancer Screening Program (NCSP), authorities have integrated lung cancer into a broader cancer prevention framework that already includes cervical, breast, colorectal, and stomach cancers.
From 2020 to 2022, the NCSP rolled out guidelines shaped by multicenter trials and real-world studies, making LDCT screening accessible to high-risk groups across provinces. While funding currently covers only a one-time scan for eligible individuals, the inclusion of lung cancer in public insurance discussions at the National People’s Congress signals a long-term commitment.
Unlike imported Western screening protocols, China’s approach is tailored to local demographics. Regulators have factored in higher adenocarcinoma rates among non-smokers, cooking-related indoor pollution exposure, and a rapidly aging population. This “China-first” strategy has improved adoption among medical practitioners and created pathways for wider insurance reimbursement.
Market Dynamics
Drivers – Expanding Policy Support
Top-down initiatives, guideline harmonization, and the inclusion of LDCT in basic public health services are expected to accelerate adoption. Provincial governments are already scaling municipal-level programs, creating a ripple effect across the healthcare ecosystem.
Restraints – Compliance and False Positives
Despite policy momentum, uptake remains uneven. In a Henan-based program, just 40% of invited high-risk individuals completed their free LDCT scans, reflecting barriers such as low health literacy, time away from work, and distrust in institutions.
High false-positive rates further strain the system. A nationwide study showed that nearly 69% of flagged nodules were benign, leading to unnecessary biopsies, imaging, and anxiety for patients. This adds financial burden and discourages repeat participation.
Opportunities – AI-Powered Detection
Artificial Intelligence is emerging as a game-changer in addressing these challenges. At Sichuan University’s West China Hospital, AI-assisted detection achieved 93% accuracy in categorizing nodules and is already operational across more than 160 hospitals nationwide. Deep learning models such as CMixNet have demonstrated sensitivities above 90%, significantly reducing false positives and radiologist workload.
With China focusing not only on smokers but also younger non-smoking women—a group disproportionately affected by adenocarcinoma—AI integration is expected to expand early-stage detection and survival rates.
Category-Wise Analysis
Cancer Type Insights
Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC): Projected to capture 82.4% market share in 2025, NSCLC dominates China’s lung cancer landscape. Adenocarcinoma, now the most common subtype, often appears as subtle lesions that LDCT can detect with high sensitivity.
Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC): Though a minority, SCLC cases are growing, particularly in smoking-heavy provinces such as Hebei. With rapid progression and early metastasis, SCLC largely eludes early detection, making it a secondary but growing segment for screening initiatives.
Diagnosis Insights
LDCT Scans: Expected to command 71.4% market share in 2025, LDCT remains the gold standard due to superior accuracy and cost-effectiveness. Nationwide awareness campaigns and streamlined logistics are driving participation.
Chest X-Rays (CXR): While less precise, CXRs retain utility, especially in raising awareness and serving as a baseline tool in rural settings. Comparative studies suggest LDCT reduces mortality by 24.2% versus no screening, while CXR achieves a 17.2% reduction.
Regional Insights
Shandong Province
Shandong, with lung cancer incidence and mortality rates above the national average, exemplifies the urgency of screening interventions. Bayesian modeling predicts mortality will rise through 2030, reinforcing the need for widespread LDCT adoption. The province has already aligned with 2023 national LDCT guidelines, emphasizing annual or biennial scans for high-risk groups.
Sichuan Province
Sichuan presents both progress and inequities. Over 95% of high-risk individuals can reach an LDCT facility within an hour, but uptake stands at just 34.7%, below the 95% threshold needed for population-level mortality reduction. Urban-rural disparities remain stark, with media campaigns and navigation services showing modest gains in participation.
Jiangsu Province
In Jiangsu, a wealthier province, LDCT uptake surpasses national averages thanks to better infrastructure and early adoption of national frameworks. Epidemiological models suggest incidence rates may plateau by 2030, particularly among men, while women and urban populations continue to present steady case loads—highlighting the evolving demographics of lung cancer risk.
Competitive Landscape
The competitive environment of China’s lung cancer screening market is characterized by a mix of multinational giants, domestic leaders, and AI-driven start-ups.
Global players such as GE HealthCare, Siemens Healthineers, Philips, Canon Medical, and Medtronic dominate high-end imaging technologies.
Domestic firms, including Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare and Shenzhen Mindray, are capitalizing on government incentives to provide affordable, locally manufactured LDCT scanners.
AI firms like Hangzhou Yitu are partnering with hospitals to integrate deep learning into clinical workflows, alleviating the shortage of radiologists and boosting accuracy.
With mobile CT solutions and tele-radiology platforms filling gaps in rural areas, the market is evolving to meet China’s diverse geographic and socioeconomic realities.
Key Developments
April 2025: Researchers at the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Disease reported that LDCT screening identified lung cancers in non-smokers at comparable rates to smokers, reshaping conventional eligibility criteria.
January 2025: A Sichuan University study found that just 23.88% of urban residents had strong awareness of lung cancer risks, underlining the need for continued education campaigns.
Outlook
The China lung cancer screening market is on a trajectory of strong, sustained growth through 2032, propelled by government support, AI-driven innovation, and rising disease burden. However, to fully realize its potential, challenges related to compliance, false positives, and regional inequities must be addressed.
The shift from late-stage to early-stage diagnosis could prove transformative, not only saving lives but also reducing the economic toll of lung cancer on the country’s healthcare system. With revenues expected to more than double, the sector represents a rare confluence of public health priority and market opportunity.
Read Related Reports:
Injectable Nanomedicines Market
Neurovascular Thrombectomy Devices Market
